The Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning during a drill in the western Pacific Ocean in 2018.


Nine years ago, China’s People's Liberation Army Navy didn't operate one carrier . In 2021, its third carrier should be commissioned, while a fourth one might be laid down. What resides behind that spectacular fleet expansion? Is China close to challenge the United States within the air and on the seas as a worldwide military power?

The tip of the iceberg

As early because the 1980s, China’s People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) expressed the ambition of becoming a worldwide actor. Between 1982 and 1997, Admiral Liu Huaqing, as Vice-president of the Central commission , put together a doctrine that might see China launch by 2000 a green-water maritime force capable of defending its body of water , and by 2010 a blue-water navy that would project China’s power on a worldwide scale.

While by the center of the 1990s, the PLAN was already a formidable regional player, its global ambition was delayed by insufficient funding and a scarcity of know-how to properly build an aircraft carrier. In 1985, a primary attempt was made at retro-engineering, following the acquisition of the HMAS Melbourne, a former Australian light carrier that started its career within the British Royal Navy… in 1945. it had been eventually scrapped.

Following the autumn of the USSR, Soviet ships entered the market. The Minsk and Kiev heavy aircraft carriers were respectively acquired in 1998 and 2000. But after being thoroughly studied, they ended up becoming tourist attractions.

In 1998, the Varyag, sistership of the Russian Navy flagship Admiral Kuznetsov, was acquired from Ukraine by a Macau-based company. Unlike the previous three acquisitions, the Varyag was never finished, as its production had been caught within the fall of the USSR. Thus, it had been about 70% complete when it had been towed from the docks of the Black Sea to the Dalian shipyards within the Liaoning province, on China’s northern coast. very similar to the Kiev-class acquisitions, the hull of the Varang was officially destined to become a floating hotel.

After a decade of denial from the Chinese authorities, the carrier , renamed Liaoning, was refurbished and eventually commissioned by the PLAN in 2012. Designated Type 001, it is capable of carrying 40 aircraft including a wing of 26 J-15 fighter jets, the Chinese version of the Russian Su-33.

it had been followed in 2018 by the Shandong (Type 002). Despite their similarities, this second carrier is ten meters longer and 4 meters wider than its predecessor. Its design isn't exactly indigenous, but it had been the primary carrier completely inbuilt China. a replacement model of carrier , the sort 003, is already underway. In October 2019, after analysis of satellite imagery provided by Airbus, the middle for Strategic and International Studies determined that this third carrier would be sensibly bigger than its predecessors and may thus sport a flat deck and a catapult launch system (CATOBAR), possibly electromagnetic, allowing heavier aircraft to be operated. The ship might be launched stumped by the top of

2021, with its commission set for 2025.

“2021 may be a year filled with expectations with the launch of the sort 003 carrier , but also the H-20 bomber,” Chinese military expert and commentator Song Zhongping noted recently on the Chinese state channel CCTV. The Xian H-20 may be a stealth strategic bomber capable of carrying hypersonic missiles over a distance of 8,000 kilometers (5,000 miles).

The South China Morning Post reported that another sistership of the sort 003 class might be put in dry-dock in early 2021. a replacement type (004?) of carrier , nuclear-powered, is allegedly under study.

the precise number of aircraft carriers to be eventually operated by the PLAN isn't confirmed, with some estimations saying that China could operate a fleet of 6 aircraft carriers by 2030, still behind the us Navy and its 11 carriers.

However, things are changing fast and therefore the Chinese industrial capacity shouldn't be underestimated. Since 2012, the PLAN has quite doubled its tonnage and in September 2020, the US Department of Defense reported that its own Navy had finally been surpassed. “The PRC [People's Republic of China] has the most important navy within the world, with an overall battle force of roughly 350 ships and submarines including over 130 major surface combatants,” the Department said during a report. The US Navy’s battle force was approximately 293 ships in 2020.

As a comparison, every four years China launches the equivalent of the 118-ship strong French Navy, as noted by its Chief of Staff Admiral Pierre Vandier during a parliamentary hearing. If the production output isn't a drag for China, it'd however be trapped by a scarcity of sailors to man its brand-new ships.

But what's there to carry?

The Shenyang FC-31 (Credit: Danny Yu)

For the decide to defend its neighboring waters, including compete on a worldwide scale, its aircraft carriers should also operate cutting-edge weapon platforms. However, as it is, China hardly has any carrier-capable aircraft to field against its competitors.

Currently, the only Chinese fighter ready to operate from an carrier is that the Shenyang J-15. But that local version of the Russian Sukhoi Su-33, supported the Soviet Su-27 designed within the 1980s, hardly stands an opportunity against the F-35C of the United States Navy , the F35B of British Royal Navy, or maybe the Rafale Marine of the French Navy.

Thus, China is currently studying the conversion of 1 of its fifth-generation fighter jets to be carrier-capable. In 2019, the Shenyang FC-31 “Gyrfalcon” was rejected by the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), which preferred its competitor, the Chengdu J-20 “Mighty Dragon”. Since then, both were reportedly considered for a maritime conversion. Being lighter and smaller than the J-20, the FC-31 looks like a far better fit a carrier. However, it's yet to enter service and prove its capabilities. On September 8, 2020, pictures of an upgraded and refurbished

prototype of the Gyrfalcon emerged on Chinese social media, hinting that Shenyang was still actively performing on its aircraft. Alternatively, a fighter jet with short takeoff and vertical landing capabilities (STVOL) is being studied by Chengdu, consistent with China Daily.

A carrier wing isn't solely composed of combat aircraft, as aircraft carriers also got to have eyes within the skies. As such, having an airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft is primordial. For this role, most countries possessing an carrier use a helicopter like the Westland pirate , apart from the us and France, whose navies believe a fixed-wing aircraft, the Grumman E-2 Hawkeye.

China could soon join this very exclusive club. In 2018, the event of an AEW plane by the manufacturer Xian was confirmed. Two years later, in August 2020, the KJ-600 took off for the first time. The aircraft, which bears a striking resemblance to the Hawkeye, would be fitted with an AESA-type (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar. Enthusiastic Chinese analysts say the aircraft are going to be capable of spotting stealth planes like the F-35, operated by the United States Navy , but also by Japan and South Korea . Entry into service is predicted between 2022 and 2025.

the clothes of worldwide power initially glance, it might be easy to assume that the PLAN is just racing for the US Navy’s throne of dominating the blue seas. Decades of retro-engineering made the Western eye familiar with see China copying what works for its competitors. The FC-31 and therefore the KJ-600 mentioned above are there to prove it.

However, China’s ambitions won't be as obvious as its designs. In his report on the PLAN’s modernization, the specialist in Naval Affairs Ronald O'Rourke argued there was few scenario where a high-intensity conflict with the United States Navy would end in a victory for the PLAN. And if it were to aim an attack on Taiwan, the Chinese aircraft of the PLAAF would easily be within range of the island, as they prove it countless times per annum .

it's more likely that China relies totally on the image related to the huge ships. The positioning of a carrier army unit conveys a robust political message: In August 2020, as tensions reheated between Turkey and Greece over the exploitation of maritime resources, France sent its battle-ready Charles de Gaulle carrier cruising within the Eastern

The Shandong Type 002 aircraft carrier (Credit: Tyg728)

Mediterranean to point out support for Athens. More recently, on January 24, 2021, the United States Navy deployed a army unit led by the USS Roosevelt within the South China Sea region. Its official mission was promoting “freedom of the seas, and reassuring allies and partners.”

The Chinese Navy, which was still a regional fleet 20 years ago, is now deployed all around the planet . The PLAN’s naval groups cruise wherever Beijing’s interests are, from the South China Sea all the thanks to the Mediterranean. In 2017, alittle Chinese flotilla even participated in drills within the Baltic with the Russian Navy. With the development of aircraft carriers, China is first and foremost getting to set in stone its political status of major power .

While not actively seeking a confrontation with the United States Navy , the PLAN is certainly trying to present an alternate to its hegemony on the ocean . This message, quite an immediate threat, could help China create new defense partnerships, even among the United States’ historical allies.